For a full list of publications, please visit my Google Scholar profile.
Winkelmann, D., Michels, R. (2025)
“Momentum
effects in team sports: analyzing the interplay between offense and
defense in the NBA”
The American Statistician, in
press.
Koslik, J.-O., Feldmann, C. C., Mews, S., Michels, R.,
& Langrock, R. (2025)
“Inference
on the state process of periodically inhomogeneous hidden Markov models
for animal behavior”
The Annals of Applied Statistics, 19(4),
2724–2737.
Karlis, D., Michels, R., & Ötting, M. (2025)
“Modelling
handball outcomes using univariate and bivariate approaches”
Statistical Methods & Applications, in press.
Bajons, R., Koslik, J.-O., Michels, R., & Ötting, M.
(2025)
“PEP: a
tackle value measuring the prevention of expected points”
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports.
Michels, R., & Langrock, R. (2025)
“Nonparametric
estimation of bivariate hidden Markov models using tensor-product
B-splines”
Statistical Modelling.
Michels, R., Ötting, M., & Karlis, D. (2025)
“Extending the Dixon and
Coles model: an application to women’s football data”
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society – Series C: Applied
Statistics, 74(1), 167–186.
Michels, R., & Koslik, J.-O. (2024)
“On the combination of
data smoothing and Markov-switching models”
Journal of the
Royal Statistical Society – Series C: Applied Statistics, 73(3),
557–560.
Adam, T., Ötting, M., & Michels, R. (2024)
“Markov-switching
decision trees”
AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis,
108(2), 461–476.
Oelschläger, L., Adam, T., & Michels, R. (2024)
“fHMM: Hidden Markov
Models for Financial Time Series in R”
Journal of
Statistical Software, 109, 1–25.
Ötting, M., Michels, R., Langrock, R., & Deutscher,
C. (2024)
“Demand for
live betting: An analysis using state-space models”
Applied
Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 40(2),
527–541.
Michels, R., Ötting, M., & Langrock, R. (2023)
“Bettors’ reaction
to match dynamics: Evidence from in-game betting”
European
Journal of Operational Research, 310(3), 1118–1127.
Michels, R., Adam, T., & Ötting, M. (2023)
“Tree-based
Regression within a hidden Markov model framework”
Book of
Short Papers of the 14th Scientific Meeting on Classification and Data
Analysis.