Publications

For a full list of publications, please visit my Google Scholar profile.

Preprints

• Michels, R., Bajons, R., & Fischer, J.-O. (2026)
  “Integrating Unsupervised and Supervised Learning for the Prediction of Defensive Schemes in American Football”
  arXiv preprint arXiv:2602.10784

• Winkelmann, D., Michels, R. & Deutscher C. (2025)
  “Predicting Qualification Thresholds in UEFA’s incomplete round-robin tournaments”

Peer-reviewed papers

• Winkelmann, D., Michels, R. (2025)
  “Momentum effects in team sports: analyzing the interplay between offense and defense in the NBA”
  The American Statistician, in press.

• Koslik, J.-O., Feldmann, C. C., Mews, S., Michels, R., & Langrock, R. (2025)
  “Inference on the state process of periodically inhomogeneous hidden Markov models for animal behavior”
  The Annals of Applied Statistics, 19(4), 2724–2737.

• Karlis, D., Michels, R., & Ötting, M. (2025)
  “Modelling handball outcomes using univariate and bivariate approaches”
  Statistical Methods & Applications, in press.

• Bajons, R., Koslik, J.-O., Michels, R., & Ötting, M. (2025)
  “PEP: a tackle value measuring the prevention of expected points”
  Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports.

• Michels, R., & Langrock, R. (2025)
  “Nonparametric estimation of bivariate hidden Markov models using tensor-product B-splines”
  Statistical Modelling.

• Michels, R., Ötting, M., & Karlis, D. (2025)
  “Extending the Dixon and Coles model: an application to women’s football data”
  Journal of the Royal Statistical Society – Series C: Applied Statistics, 74(1), 167–186.

• Michels, R., & Koslik, J.-O. (2024)
  “On the combination of data smoothing and Markov-switching models”
  Journal of the Royal Statistical Society – Series C: Applied Statistics, 73(3), 557–560.

• Adam, T., Ötting, M., & Michels, R. (2024)
  “Markov-switching decision trees”
  AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, 108(2), 461–476.

• Oelschläger, L., Adam, T., & Michels, R. (2024)
  “fHMM: Hidden Markov Models for Financial Time Series in R”
  Journal of Statistical Software, 109, 1–25.

• Ötting, M., Michels, R., Langrock, R., & Deutscher, C. (2024)
  “Demand for live betting: An analysis using state-space models”
  Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 40(2), 527–541.

• Michels, R., Ötting, M., & Langrock, R. (2023)
  “Bettors’ reaction to match dynamics: Evidence from in-game betting”
  European Journal of Operational Research, 310(3), 1118–1127.

• Michels, R., Adam, T., & Ötting, M. (2023)
  “Tree-based Regression within a hidden Markov model framework”
  Book of Short Papers of the 14th Scientific Meeting on Classification and Data Analysis.